Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Bistritsa Stadium
CSKA 1948
4th · 28 pts2–3FULL TIME
CSKA Sofia
2nd · 31 pts38% CSKA
26% Draw
36% CSKA
OUR PICK
CSKA 1948 to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.8822.78
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.35
12
74%
Season stats
CSKA 1948CSKA Sofia2.4Goals per game2.2
1.1Conceded per game0.7
2.15Points per game2.38
69%Win rate69%
17Goal difference20
12Form, last 5 (pts)11
CSKA 1948 form
WWWLWH Spartak Varna6–1
H Botev Plovdiv4–0
A Neftochimic Burgas0–4
H CSKA Sofia2–3
A Slavia Sofia1–2
CSKA Sofia form
DWDWLH Slavia Sofia0–0
H Ludogorets2–0
A FC Nordsjaelland2–2
A Nesebar0–2
H Monaco1–2
Head to head
0
CSKA
1
Draw
4
CSKA
Oct 2026CSKA 1948 – CSKA Sofia2–3
May 2026CSKA Sofia – CSKA 19481–1
May 2026CSKA 1948 – CSKA Sofia0–1
Feb 2026CSKA 1948 – CSKA Sofia0–2
Feb 2026CSKA Sofia – CSKA 19482–0
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: CSKA 1948 38%, the draw 26%, CSKA Sofia 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.38 for CSKA 1948, 1.33 for CSKA Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
CSKA 1948 sit 4th on 28 points; CSKA Sofia are 2nd on 31.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.