Over 1.5 goals@1.58
Over 1.5
63%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace
18th · 7 pts3–1FULL TIME
Nottingham Forest
19th · 6 pts29% Crystal
29% Draw
42% Nottingham
OUR PICK
Nottingham Forest to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.50X3.4322.37
Goals 2.5Over2.62Under1.57
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.75
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Under 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.75
NG
57%
Double chance@1.40
X2
71%
Season stats
Crystal PalaceNottingham Forest1.0Goals per game0.7
2.3Conceded per game1.3
0.78Points per game0.67
22%Win rate11%
-12Goal difference-6
4Form, last 5 (pts)1
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
Nottingham Forest form
LDLLLA Brentford2–0
A Ipswich1–1
H Arsenal0–1
A Crystal Palace3–1
H Coventry0–1
Head to head
1
Crystal
3
Draw
1
Nottingham
Oct 2026Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest3–1
Feb 2026Nottingham Forest – Crystal Palace1–1
Aug 2025Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest1–1
May 2025Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest1–1
Oct 2024Nottingham Forest – Crystal Palace1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Nottingham Forest slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 29% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (0.94 for Crystal Palace, 1.21 for Nottingham Forest), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crystal Palace sit 18th on 7 points; Nottingham Forest are 19th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.