Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace
18th · 7 pts0–2FULL TIME
Newcastle
12th · 11 pts36% Crystal
22% Draw
42% Newcastle
OUR PICK
Newcastle to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.88
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X4.5822.40
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.43NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.43
GG
70%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
Crystal PalaceNewcastle1.0Goals per game1.5
2.3Conceded per game1.8
0.78Points per game1.38
22%Win rate38%
-12Goal difference-2
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
Newcastle form
LWLLWA Everton3–1
A Crystal Palace0–2
H Aston Villa0–1
A Coventry4–1
H Hull City2–1
Head to head
1
Crystal
1
Draw
3
Newcastle
Oct 2026Crystal Palace – Newcastle0–2
Apr 2026Crystal Palace – Newcastle2–1
Jan 2026Newcastle – Crystal Palace2–0
Apr 2025Newcastle – Crystal Palace5–0
Nov 2024Crystal Palace – Newcastle1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Crystal Palace 36%, the draw 22%, Newcastle 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.75 for Crystal Palace, 1.88 for Newcastle), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crystal Palace sit 18th on 7 points; Newcastle are 12th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.