Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace
18th · 7 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Liverpool
5th · 15 pts23% Crystal
24% Draw
53% Liverpool
OUR PICK
Liverpool to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.38X4.1421.88
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
Crystal PalaceLiverpool1.0Goals per game1.2
2.3Conceded per game1.0
0.78Points per game1.67
22%Win rate44%
-12Goal difference2
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Head to head
2
Crystal
2
Draw
1
Liverpool
Apr 2026Liverpool – Crystal Palace3–1
Oct 2025Liverpool – Crystal Palace0–3
Sept 2025Crystal Palace – Liverpool2–1
Aug 2025Crystal Palace – Liverpool2–2
May 2025Liverpool – Crystal Palace1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Liverpool slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.02 for Crystal Palace, 1.69 for Liverpool), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crystal Palace sit 18th on 7 points; Liverpool are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.