Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace
15th · 4 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
1899 Hoffenheim
23rd · 3 pts57% Crystal
20% Draw
23% 1899
OUR PICK
Crystal Palace to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.47
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X5.1324.27
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
70%
Double chance@1.24
12
80%
Season stats
Crystal Palace1899 Hoffenheim2.7Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate33%
3Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)3
Crystal Palace form
LWLDLA Tottenham2–0
A Fulham0–1
H Newcastle0–2
A Beşiktaş2–2
A Brighton5–0
1899 Hoffenheim form
LDWWWA Werder Bremen2–0
A Holstein Kiel1–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–0
H Lyon3–0
A Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2
Head to head
0
Crystal
0
Draw
0
1899
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Crystal Palace clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.35 for Crystal Palace, 1.47 for 1899 Hoffenheim), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crystal Palace sit 15th on 4 points; 1899 Hoffenheim are 23rd on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.