Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Estádio Mineirão
Cruzeiro
3rd · 57 pts2–0FULL TIME
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts45% Cruzeiro
25% Draw
30% Sao
OUR PICK
Cruzeiro to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.22
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.18
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.22X3.9423.39
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.85NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.85
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
CruzeiroSao Paulo1.6Goals per game1.2
1.4Conceded per game1.2
1.73Points per game1.30
52%Win rate36%
6Goal difference0
12Form, last 5 (pts)7
Cruzeiro form
WWWLWA Atletico-MG0–1
H Remo1–0
A Gremio2–4
A RB Bragantino4–2
H Sao Paulo2–0
Sao Paulo form
LDWWLA Bahia3–2
A Mirassol1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–0
H Vitoria2–1
A Cruzeiro2–0
Head to head
2
Cruzeiro
2
Draw
1
Sao
Oct 2026Cruzeiro – Sao Paulo2–0
Apr 2026Sao Paulo – Cruzeiro4–1
Aug 2025Cruzeiro – Sao Paulo1–0
Apr 2025Sao Paulo – Cruzeiro1–1
Jan 2025Cruzeiro – Sao Paulo1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Cruzeiro slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.22 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.52 for Cruzeiro, 1.18 for Sao Paulo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 57 points; Sao Paulo are 10th on 43.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.