BRASerie A · Matchday 34Friday, 6 November 2026 · Estádio Mineirão

Cruzeiro

3rd · 57 pts

01:30KICK-OFF WAT

Bahia

6th · 53 pts

45% Cruzeiro

24% Draw

31% Bahia

OUR PICK

Cruzeiro to win

Model probability 45% · fair odds

2.21

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.34

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.21X4.1823.24

Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25

Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.73

Over 2.5

58%

Both teams to score@1.67

60%

Double chance@1.31

76%

Season stats

CruzeiroBahia

1.6Goals per game1.5

1.4Conceded per game1.3

1.73Points per game1.61

52%Win rate42%

6Goal difference6

12Form, last 5 (pts)7

Cruzeiro form

WWWLW

A Atletico-MG0–1

H Remo1–0

A Gremio2–4

A RB Bragantino4–2

H Sao Paulo2–0

Bahia form

WDLWL

H Sao Paulo3–2

A Santos1–1

H Flamengo0–3

H Mirassol1–0

A Palmeiras1–0

Head to head

Cruzeiro

Draw

Bahia

May 2026Bahia – Cruzeiro1–2

Sept 2025Bahia – Cruzeiro1–2

Apr 2025Cruzeiro – Bahia3–0

Oct 2024Cruzeiro – Bahia1–1

Jun 2024Bahia – Cruzeiro4–1

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Flamengo33+4073

2Palmeiras33+3470

3Cruzeiro33+657

4Fluminense33+1054

5Atletico Paranaense33+1054

6Bahia33+653

7Atletico-MG33+550

8Santos33+247

9RB Bragantino33+444

10Sao Paulo33043

Match preview

Our model makes Cruzeiro slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.67 for Cruzeiro, 1.34 for Bahia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 57 points; Bahia are 6th on 53.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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