Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Monday, 2 November 2026 · Estadio Banorte
Cruz Azul
3rd · 29 pts2–1FULL TIME
Leon
7th · 22 pts52% Cruz
21% Draw
26% Leon
OUR PICK
Cruz Azul to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.43
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.91X4.7223.80
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.50NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.50
GG
67%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Cruz AzulLeon2.3Goals per game1.5
1.6Conceded per game1.3
1.93Points per game1.47
60%Win rate40%
10Goal difference2
13Form, last 5 (pts)5
Cruz Azul form
WWWWDH Leon2–1
A Club Queretaro1–3
A CF Pachuca1–2
H FC Juarez5–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–3
Leon form
LDWLDA Cruz Azul2–1
H Toluca1–1
A Tigres UANL0–2
H Club America3–5
A Puebla1–1
Head to head
4
Cruz
0
Draw
1
Leon
Nov 2026Cruz Azul – Leon2–1
Jan 2026Leon – Cruz Azul2–1
Jul 2025Cruz Azul – Leon4–1
May 2025Cruz Azul – Leon2–1
May 2025Leon – Cruz Azul2–3
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Cruz Azul slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.08 for Cruz Azul, 1.43 for Leon), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cruz Azul sit 3rd on 29 points; Leon are 7th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.