Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estadio Banorte
Cruz Azul
3rd · 29 pts5–0FULL TIME
FC Juarez
18th · 8 pts75% Cruz
15% Draw
11% FC
OUR PICK
Cruz Azul to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.34
Expected goals
2.80 – 0.99
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.34X6.8629.36
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.12
1X
89%
Season stats
Cruz AzulFC Juarez2.3Goals per game0.8
1.6Conceded per game2.3
1.93Points per game0.53
60%Win rate13%
10Goal difference-22
13Form, last 5 (pts)5
Cruz Azul form
WWWWDH Leon2–1
A Club Queretaro1–3
A CF Pachuca1–2
H FC Juarez5–0
A U.N.A.M. - Pumas3–3
FC Juarez form
WDLLDH Club Queretaro3–1
A Necaxa1–1
H Atlante FC0–1
A Cruz Azul5–0
H Club Tijuana1–1
Head to head
4
Cruz
0
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026Cruz Azul – FC Juarez5–0
Jan 2026FC Juarez – Cruz Azul3–4
Sept 2025Cruz Azul – FC Juarez3–2
Jan 2025FC Juarez – Cruz Azul1–0
Oct 2024Cruz Azul – FC Juarez4–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Cruz Azul clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.80 for Cruz Azul, 0.99 for FC Juarez), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cruz Azul sit 3rd on 29 points; FC Juarez are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.