Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie B · Matchday 36Friday, 30 October 2026 · Estadio Heriberto Hülse
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts2–0FULL TIME
Ponte Preta
20th · 15 pts76% Criciuma
18% Draw
7% Ponte
OUR PICK
Criciuma to win
Model probability 76% · fair odds
1.32
Expected goals
2.07 – 0.45
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.32X5.71214.56
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.46
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.46
NG
68%
Double chance@1.07
1X
93%
Season stats
CriciumaPonte Preta1.1Goals per game0.6
0.8Conceded per game2.2
1.72Points per game0.42
50%Win rate8%
8Goal difference-57
9Form, last 5 (pts)2
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
Ponte Preta form
LDDLLA Criciuma2–0
H Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense1–1
A Novorizontino5–1
H Juventude0–2
Head to head
0
Criciuma
0
Draw
0
Ponte
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Criciuma clear favourites, giving them a 76% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (2.07 for Criciuma, 0.45 for Ponte Preta), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Criciuma sit 4th on 62 points; Ponte Preta are 20th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.