Over 1.5 goals@1.63
Over 1.5
61%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estadio Heriberto Hülse
Criciuma
4th · 62 pts1–0FULL TIME
America Mineiro
19th · 26 pts62% Criciuma
25% Draw
13% America
OUR PICK
Criciuma to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.53
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X3.9627.96
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.52
Both scoreGG2.95NG1.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.48
NG
68%
Double chance@1.14
1X
87%
Season stats
CriciumaAmerica Mineiro1.1Goals per game0.7
0.8Conceded per game1.5
1.72Points per game0.72
50%Win rate19%
8Goal difference-29
9Form, last 5 (pts)9
Criciuma form
WLWWLH Ponte Preta2–0
A Sport Recife2–1
A São Bernardo0–1
H America Mineiro1–0
A Ceara1–0
America Mineiro form
WWWLLA Londrina1–3
H Cuiaba1–0
H Operario-PR1–0
A Criciuma1–0
H Fortaleza EC0–1
Head to head
3
Criciuma
2
Draw
0
America
Oct 2026Criciuma – America Mineiro1–0
Jun 2026America Mineiro – Criciuma0–1
Oct 2025Criciuma – America Mineiro2–1
Jun 2025America Mineiro – Criciuma1–1
Jun 2021Criciuma – America Mineiro2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Criciuma clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.1 goals in total (1.54 for Criciuma, 0.53 for America Mineiro), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Criciuma sit 4th on 62 points; America Mineiro are 19th on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.