Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Alexandra Stadium
Crewe
4th · 22 pts3–2FULL TIME
Rochdale
19th · 15 pts52% Crewe
25% Draw
23% Rochdale
OUR PICK
Crewe to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
1.58 – 0.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.92X3.9624.40
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.29
1X
77%
Season stats
CreweRochdale1.2Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.9
1.57Points per game1.07
36%Win rate29%
0Goal difference-9
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Crewe form
DLLWWH Barnet1–1
A Chesterfield5–1
A Exeter City2–0
H Rochdale3–2
A Swindon Town0–1
Rochdale form
LLDLDA Port Vale4–2
H Accrington ST0–5
H Grimsby2–2
A Crewe3–2
A Tranmere1–1
Head to head
2
Crewe
3
Draw
0
Rochdale
Oct 2026Crewe – Rochdale3–2
Feb 2023Crewe – Rochdale1–1
Jul 2022Rochdale – Crewe1–2
Apr 2021Crewe – Rochdale1–1
Jan 2021Rochdale – Crewe3–3
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Crewe slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.58 for Crewe, 0.95 for Rochdale), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crewe sit 4th on 22 points; Rochdale are 19th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.