Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Alexandra Stadium
Crewe
4th · 22 pts3–1FULL TIME
Bristol Rovers
17th · 16 pts45% Crewe
27% Draw
28% Bristol
OUR PICK
Crewe to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.05
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X3.7623.59
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.97
NG
51%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
CreweBristol Rovers1.2Goals per game1.2
1.2Conceded per game1.6
1.57Points per game1.14
36%Win rate36%
0Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
Crewe form
DLLWWH Barnet1–1
A Chesterfield5–1
A Exeter City2–0
H Rochdale3–2
A Swindon Town0–1
Bristol Rovers form
LDLLLA Fleetwood Town3–1
H Swindon Town0–0
H Salford City1–2
A Shrewsbury1–0
H Barnet1–3
Head to head
2
Crewe
1
Draw
2
Bristol
Oct 2026Crewe – Bristol Rovers3–1
Mar 2026Bristol Rovers – Crewe2–1
Dec 2025Crewe – Bristol Rovers1–1
Dec 2023Crewe – Bristol Rovers2–4
May 2021Bristol Rovers – Crewe0–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Crewe slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.42 for Crewe, 1.05 for Bristol Rovers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crewe sit 4th on 22 points; Bristol Rovers are 17th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.