Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · The Broadfield Stadium
Crawley Town
24th · 9 pts2–2FULL TIME
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts29% Crawley
24% Draw
48% Chesterfield
OUR PICK
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.09
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.74
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.48X4.2522.09
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Crawley TownChesterfield1.1Goals per game1.7
1.8Conceded per game1.5
0.75Points per game1.36
17%Win rate36%
-8Goal difference3
5Form, last 5 (pts)5
Crawley Town form
WDLLDA Oldham0–1
H Tranmere1–1
H Shrewsbury2–3
A Salford City2–1
H Chesterfield2–2
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Head to head
1
Crawley
3
Draw
1
Chesterfield
Oct 2026Crawley Town – Chesterfield2–2
Feb 2026Crawley Town – Chesterfield1–1
Aug 2025Chesterfield – Crawley Town2–2
Feb 2018Chesterfield – Crawley Town1–2
Oct 2017Crawley Town – Chesterfield0–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Chesterfield slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.09 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.30 for Crawley Town, 1.74 for Chesterfield), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Crawley Town sit 24th on 9 points; Chesterfield are 10th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.