Over 1.5 goals@1.35
Over 1.5
74%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Cracovia Krakow
13th · 12 pts1–1FULL TIME
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 24 pts21% Cracovia
24% Draw
55% Legia
OUR PICK
Legia Warszawa to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.81
Expected goals
0.94 – 1.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.82X4.1721.81
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.97
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.26
X2
79%
Season stats
Cracovia KrakowLegia Warszawa1.2Goals per game1.8
1.6Conceded per game0.8
0.92Points per game1.85
23%Win rate46%
-6Goal difference12
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
Cracovia Krakow form
LLDWLH Motor Lublin1–2
A Piast Gliwice3–1
H Legia Warszawa1–1
H Zaglebie Lubin3–1
H Nieciecza2–3
Legia Warszawa form
DLDWWA Gornik Zabrze0–0
H Lech Poznan1–2
A Cracovia Krakow1–1
H Wisla Krakow2–0
H Korona Kielce5–1
Head to head
2
Cracovia
1
Draw
2
Legia
Oct 2026Cracovia Krakow – Legia Warszawa1–1
Mar 2026Legia Warszawa – Cracovia Krakow1–0
Aug 2025Cracovia Krakow – Legia Warszawa2–1
May 2025Cracovia Krakow – Legia Warszawa3–1
Nov 2024Legia Warszawa – Cracovia Krakow3–2
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin12+824
5Zaglebie Lubin13+122
6GKS Katowice13+621
7Piast Gliwice13+421
8Wisla Krakow13+221
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce13-518
Match preview
Our model makes Legia Warszawa clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (0.94 for Cracovia Krakow, 1.70 for Legia Warszawa), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cracovia Krakow sit 13th on 12 points; Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.