Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Monday, 12 October 2026 · Coventry Building Society Arena
Coventry
16th · 9 pts4–1FULL TIME
Newcastle
13th · 11 pts24% Coventry
26% Draw
50% Newcastle
OUR PICK
Newcastle to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.54
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.15X3.9021.99
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.96
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.96
NG
51%
Double chance@1.32
X2
76%
Season stats
CoventryNewcastle1.0Goals per game1.3
1.8Conceded per game1.7
1.00Points per game1.22
33%Win rate33%
-7Goal difference-3
9Form, last 5 (pts)6
Coventry form
WLLWWH Sunderland3–1
H Fulham0–1
A Tottenham3–1
H Newcastle4–1
A Nottingham Forest0–1
Newcastle form
LLWLLH Everton0–1
A Everton3–1
A Crystal Palace0–2
H Aston Villa0–1
A Coventry4–1
Head to head
1
Coventry
0
Draw
0
Newcastle
Oct 2026Coventry – Newcastle4–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Newcastle slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.98 for Coventry, 1.54 for Newcastle), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Coventry sit 16th on 9 points; Newcastle are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.