BRASerie A · Matchday 32Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estádio Couto Pereira

Coritiba

11th · 42 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Gremio

15th · 37 pts

44% Coritiba

26% Draw

30% Gremio

OUR PICK

Coritiba to win

Model probability 44% · fair odds

2.29

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.16

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.29X3.8423.31

Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.94

Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.36

Over 1.5

73%

Over/Under 2.5@1.94

Under 2.5

52%

Both teams to score@1.90

53%

Double chance@1.35

74%

Season stats

CoritibaGremio

1.2Goals per game1.1

1.5Conceded per game1.3

1.27Points per game1.12

33%Win rate27%

-10Goal difference-7

4Form, last 5 (pts)8

Coritiba form

WLLDL

H Vitoria2–0

H Gremio0–1

A Atletico-MG1–0

H Botafogo1–1

A Fluminense4–0

Gremio form

WWWLD

H Atletico-MG2–0

H Atletico Paranaense2–0

A Coritiba0–1

H Cruzeiro2–4

H Internacional1–1

Head to head

Coritiba

Draw

Gremio

Oct 2026Coritiba – Gremio0–1

Apr 2026Gremio – Coritiba1–0

Nov 2023Coritiba – Gremio1–2

Jun 2023Gremio – Coritiba5–1

Jan 2021Coritiba – Gremio1–1

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Flamengo33+4073

2Palmeiras33+3470

3Cruzeiro33+657

4Fluminense33+1054

5Atletico Paranaense33+1054

6Bahia33+653

7Atletico-MG33+550

8Santos33+247

9RB Bragantino33+444

10Sao Paulo33043

Match preview

Our model makes Coritiba slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.45 for Coritiba, 1.16 for Gremio), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Coritiba sit 11th on 42 points; Gremio are 15th on 37.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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