Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
BRASerie A · Matchday 30Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estádio Couto Pereira
Coritiba
11th · 42 pts1–1FULL TIME
Botafogo
12th · 39 pts44% Coritiba
24% Draw
32% Botafogo
OUR PICK
Coritiba to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.29
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.29X4.1823.09
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.65NG2.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.65
GG
61%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
CoritibaBotafogo1.2Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.6
1.27Points per game1.18
33%Win rate30%
-10Goal difference-8
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Coritiba form
WLLDLH Vitoria2–0
H Gremio0–1
A Atletico-MG1–0
H Botafogo1–1
A Fluminense4–0
Botafogo form
LLWDLA Remo2–1
A Internacional3–0
H Chapecoense-sc1–0
A Coritiba1–1
H Vasco DA Gama1–2
Head to head
0
Coritiba
3
Draw
2
Botafogo
Oct 2026Coritiba – Botafogo1–1
Apr 2026Botafogo – Coritiba2–2
Nov 2023Coritiba – Botafogo1–1
Jul 2023Botafogo – Coritiba4–1
Sept 2022Botafogo – Coritiba2–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Coritiba slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.65 for Coritiba, 1.39 for Botafogo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Coritiba sit 11th on 42 points; Botafogo are 12th on 39.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.