Over 1.5 goals@1.49
Over 1.5
67%
BRASerie A · Matchday 31Monday, 19 October 2026 · Neo Quimica Arena
Corinthians
17th · 36 pts1–1FULL TIME
Vitoria
14th · 38 pts47% Corinthians
27% Draw
26% Vitoria
OUR PICK
Corinthians to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.14
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.94
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.14X3.6423.88
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.69
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.69
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.35
1X
74%
Season stats
CorinthiansVitoria1.1Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.09Points per game1.15
27%Win rate30%
-6Goal difference-13
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Corinthians form
WLDLLH Mirassol2–0
A Vasco DA Gama3–2
H Vitoria1–1
A Palmeiras4–1
A Internacional2–1
Vitoria form
LDDLWA Coritiba2–0
H Atletico Paranaense1–1
A Corinthians1–1
A Sao Paulo2–1
H Chapecoense-sc4–0
Head to head
2
Corinthians
3
Draw
0
Vitoria
Oct 2026Corinthians – Vitoria1–1
Apr 2026Vitoria – Corinthians0–0
Oct 2025Vitoria – Corinthians0–1
Jun 2025Corinthians – Vitoria0–0
Nov 2024Vitoria – Corinthians1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Corinthians slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.14 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.37 for Corinthians, 0.94 for Vitoria), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Corinthians sit 17th on 36 points; Vitoria are 14th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.