Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como
9th · 6 pts4–1FULL TIME
Manchester United
21st · 3 pts47% Como
20% Draw
32% Manchester
OUR PICK
Como to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.79
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.12X4.8823.10
Goals 2.5Over1.32Under3.93
Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Over 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.35
GG
74%
Double chance@1.26
12
80%
Season stats
ComoManchester United3.3Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game2.0
2.00Points per game1.00
67%Win rate33%
5Goal difference-1
6Form, last 5 (pts)3
Como form
WWWWWH Venezia1–0
A Torino1–3
H Sassuolo2–0
H Manchester United4–1
A Fiorentina1–3
Manchester United form
LLLDLA Chelsea2–0
H Bournemouth0–3
A Como4–1
A Leeds1–1
A Atletico Madrid2–0
Head to head
1
Como
0
Draw
0
Manchester
Oct 2026Como – Manchester United4–1
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Como slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.18 for Como, 1.79 for Manchester United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Como sit 9th on 6 points; Manchester United are 21st on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.