Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como
4th · 23 pts0–0FULL TIME
AS Roma
3rd · 24 pts39% Como
23% Draw
38% AS
OUR PICK
Como to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.64
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.57X4.3422.63
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
ComoAS Roma1.8Goals per game2.8
0.8Conceded per game1.0
2.30Points per game2.40
70%Win rate70%
10Goal difference18
13Form, last 5 (pts)11
Como form
WWWWWH Venezia1–0
A Torino1–3
H Sassuolo2–0
H Manchester United4–1
A Fiorentina1–3
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Head to head
2
Como
1
Draw
2
AS
Oct 2026Como – AS Roma0–0
Mar 2026Como – AS Roma2–1
Dec 2025AS Roma – Como1–0
Mar 2025AS Roma – Como2–1
Dec 2024Como – AS Roma2–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Como 39%, the draw 23%, AS Roma 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.66 for Como, 1.64 for AS Roma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Como sit 4th on 23 points; AS Roma are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.