Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
WALPremier League · Matchday 14Friday, 23 October 2026 · Llanelian Road
Colwyn Bay
5th · 29 pts2–2FULL TIME
Cardiff MET
8th · 22 pts53% Colwyn
23% Draw
24% Cardiff
OUR PICK
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.10
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.2624.22
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
Colwyn BayCardiff MET1.7Goals per game1.7
1.1Conceded per game1.5
1.93Points per game1.47
60%Win rate40%
9Goal difference3
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Colwyn Bay form
WDDWLH Cambrian & Clydach2–0
H Cardiff MET2–2
A Buckley Town2–2
A Flint Town United0–1
A Briton Ferry1–0
Cardiff MET form
LDWLWH Penybont0–5
A Colwyn Bay2–2
H Ynyshir Albions4–0
H Trefelin1–3
A Llandudno0–1
Head to head
1
Colwyn
3
Draw
1
Cardiff
Oct 2026Colwyn Bay – Cardiff MET2–2
Oct 2025Colwyn Bay – Cardiff MET0–0
Sept 2025Cardiff MET – Colwyn Bay1–4
Feb 2024Cardiff MET – Colwyn Bay3–2
Sept 2023Colwyn Bay – Cardiff MET2–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Colwyn Bay slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.76 for Colwyn Bay, 1.10 for Cardiff MET), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Colwyn Bay sit 5th on 29 points; Cardiff MET are 8th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.