Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 31Saturday, 24 October 2026 · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
Columbus Crew
4–2FULL TIME
Toronto FC
54% Columbus
22% Draw
24% Toronto
OUR PICK
Columbus Crew to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.27
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X4.5724.08
Goals 2.5Over1.59Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Columbus Crew form
WWWDWH DC United3–0
A FC Dallas0–2
H Toronto FC4–2
H St. Louis City0–0
A FC Cincinnati0–2
Toronto FC form
LWLWDA Atlanta United FC1–0
H DC United2–1
A Columbus Crew4–2
A New York Red Bulls0–2
H Orlando City SC3–3
Head to head
2
Columbus
2
Draw
1
Toronto
Oct 2026Columbus Crew – Toronto FC4–2
Mar 2026Toronto FC – Columbus Crew2–1
Sept 2025Columbus Crew – Toronto FC1–1
Aug 2025Toronto FC – Columbus Crew1–1
Sept 2024Toronto FC – Columbus Crew0–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders32+143
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Columbus Crew slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.97 for Columbus Crew, 1.27 for Toronto FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.