Over 1.5 goals@2.20
Over 1.5
46%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 34Saturday, 17 October 2026
Colon Santa Fe
5th · 60 pts2–2FULL TIME
Almirante Brown
6th · 51 pts45% Colon
35% Draw
20% Almirante
OUR PICK
Colon Santa Fe to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.21
Expected goals
0.99 – 0.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.21X2.8725.01
Goals 2.5Over4.72Under1.25
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Under 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.36
NG
73%
Double chance@1.25
1X
80%
Season stats
Colon Santa FeAlmirante Brown1.3Goals per game0.8
0.8Conceded per game0.7
1.67Points per game1.42
44%Win rate36%
18Goal difference4
11Form, last 5 (pts)5
Colon Santa Fe form
WWDDWH Defensores De Belgrano2–0
A Ciudad de Bolívar0–2
H Almirante Brown2–2
A Atletico Mitre0–0
H CA Estudiantes1–0
Almirante Brown form
LWDDLA Godoy Cruz2–1
H Deportivo Moron1–0
A Colon Santa Fe2–2
H San Miguel1–1
A San Telmo3–2
Head to head
1
Colon
3
Draw
1
Almirante
Oct 2026Colon Santa Fe – Almirante Brown2–2
May 2026Almirante Brown – Colon Santa Fe1–1
Jul 2025Colon Santa Fe – Almirante Brown1–0
Mar 2025Almirante Brown – Colon Santa Fe2–0
Jul 2024Almirante Brown – Colon Santa Fe0–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Colon Santa Fe slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.21 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.5 goals in total (0.99 for Colon Santa Fe, 0.55 for Almirante Brown), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Colon Santa Fe sit 5th on 60 points; Almirante Brown are 6th on 51.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.