Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 24Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador
Cobresal
14th · 27 pts1–1FULL TIME
Universidad de Concepcion
15th · 23 pts63% Cobresal
21% Draw
16% Universidad
OUR PICK
Cobresal to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.93
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.58X4.8826.15
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.19
1X
84%
Season stats
CobresalUniversidad de Concepcion1.5Goals per game0.7
1.8Conceded per game1.8
1.04Points per game0.88
27%Win rate23%
-10Goal difference-28
6Form, last 5 (pts)1
Cobresal form
DDDWLH Everton de Vina2–2
A O'Higgins1–1
H Universidad de Concepcion1–1
H Coquimbo Unido3–2
A Deportes Limache3–0
Universidad de Concepcion form
LLDLLA Colo Colo6–1
H Deportes Limache0–1
A Cobresal1–1
H Huachipato0–2
A Palestino2–1
Head to head
2
Cobresal
1
Draw
2
Universidad
Oct 2026Cobresal – Universidad de Concepcion1–1
May 2026Cobresal – Universidad de Concepcion2–1
Apr 2026Universidad de Concepcion – Cobresal1–0
Mar 2026Universidad de Concepcion – Cobresal2–1
Dec 2020Cobresal – Universidad de Concepcion3–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Everton de Vina26+1040
5Palestino25+338
6Deportes Limache25+937
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Nublense26-935
9D. La Serena26-334
10Huachipato25-633
Match preview
Our model makes Cobresal clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.05 for Cobresal, 0.93 for Universidad de Concepcion), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cobresal sit 14th on 27 points; Universidad de Concepcion are 15th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.