Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Caliente
Club Tijuana
6th · 22 pts0–0FULL TIME
Puebla
14th · 16 pts59% Club
21% Draw
20% Puebla
OUR PICK
Club Tijuana to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.13
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.71X4.7524.90
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.26
1X
80%
Season stats
Club TijuanaPuebla1.7Goals per game1.1
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.47Points per game1.07
33%Win rate27%
4Goal difference-6
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Club Tijuana form
DDWDDA Monterrey3–3
A Club America1–1
H Santos Laguna4–1
A Toluca2–2
H Puebla0–0
Puebla form
LLLDDH U.N.A.M. - Pumas1–2
A Atlas4–3
H Monterrey1–4
A Club Tijuana0–0
H Leon1–1
Head to head
1
Club
2
Draw
2
Puebla
Oct 2026Club Tijuana – Puebla0–0
Feb 2026Club Tijuana – Puebla0–0
Oct 2025Puebla – Club Tijuana4–3
Feb 2025Puebla – Club Tijuana2–0
Nov 2024Club Tijuana – Puebla2–1
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Club Tijuana clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.05 for Club Tijuana, 1.13 for Puebla), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club Tijuana sit 6th on 22 points; Puebla are 14th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.