Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Gran Parque Central
Club Nacional
4th · 61 pts0–1FULL TIME
Liverpool Montevideo
6th · 56 pts42% Club
26% Draw
32% Liverpool
OUR PICK
Club Nacional to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.41X3.7923.11
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.91
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.91
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Club NacionalLiverpool Montevideo1.5Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.74Points per game1.65
54%Win rate44%
11Goal difference14
12Form, last 5 (pts)13
Club Nacional form
WLWWWA Danubio1–2
H Liverpool Montevideo0–1
H Deportivo Maldonado3–2
H Rentistas3–0
A Central Espanol0–1
Liverpool Montevideo form
WWWWDH Juventud2–0
A Club Nacional0–1
H Cerro Largo1–0
H Penarol1–0
A Deportivo Maldonado1–1
Head to head
3
Club
1
Draw
1
Liverpool
Oct 2026Club Nacional – Liverpool Montevideo0–1
Apr 2026Liverpool Montevideo – Club Nacional1–3
Sept 2025Club Nacional – Liverpool Montevideo3–1
Mar 2025Liverpool Montevideo – Club Nacional2–2
Sept 2024Club Nacional – Liverpool Montevideo1–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model makes Club Nacional slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.39 for Club Nacional, 1.19 for Liverpool Montevideo), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club Nacional sit 4th on 61 points; Liverpool Montevideo are 6th on 56.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.