Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 11Monday, 19 October 2026 · Gran Parque Central
Club Nacional
5th · 58 pts3–2FULL TIME
Deportivo Maldonado
2nd · 62 pts34% Club
26% Draw
40% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Deportivo Maldonado to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.49
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.37
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.98X3.8022.49
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.89NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.93
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.89
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Club NacionalDeportivo Maldonado1.5Goals per game1.6
1.2Conceded per game0.9
1.71Points per game1.82
53%Win rate53%
10Goal difference22
12Form, last 5 (pts)10
Club Nacional form
WLWWWA Danubio1–2
H Liverpool Montevideo0–1
H Deportivo Maldonado3–2
H Rentistas3–0
A Central Espanol0–1
Deportivo Maldonado form
WWLWDA Porongos0–4
H Danubio2–1
A Club Nacional3–2
H Albion FC4–1
H Liverpool Montevideo1–1
Head to head
2
Club
1
Draw
2
Deportivo
Oct 2026Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado3–2
May 2026Deportivo Maldonado – Club Nacional3–0
Apr 2026Deportivo Maldonado – Club Nacional4–2
Jan 2026Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado0–0
Nov 2024Club Nacional – Deportivo Maldonado5–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
3Atletico Torque34+1760
4Racing Montevideo35+1460
5Club Nacional34+1058
6Liverpool Montevideo34+1456
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud34-441
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Club Nacional 34%, the draw 26%, Deportivo Maldonado 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.23 for Club Nacional, 1.37 for Deportivo Maldonado), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club Nacional sit 5th on 58 points; Deportivo Maldonado are 2nd on 62.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.