Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
URUPrimera División · Clausura - 9Monday, 5 October 2026 · Gran Parque Central
Club Nacional
4th · 61 pts2–0FULL TIME
Atletico Torque
2nd · 63 pts39% Club
24% Draw
37% Atletico
OUR PICK
Club Nacional to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X4.2222.68
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG1.59NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.59
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Club NacionalAtletico Torque1.5Goals per game1.7
1.2Conceded per game1.2
1.74Points per game1.80
54%Win rate54%
11Goal difference18
12Form, last 5 (pts)9
Club Nacional form
WLWWWA Danubio1–2
H Liverpool Montevideo0–1
H Deportivo Maldonado3–2
H Rentistas3–0
A Central Espanol0–1
Atletico Torque form
WWWWLA Boston River1–2
A Penarol0–2
H Cerro3–1
H Atletico-MG2–0
A Albion FC2–1
Head to head
5
Club
0
Draw
0
Atletico
Oct 2026Club Nacional – Atletico Torque2–0
May 2026Atletico Torque – Club Nacional1–2
Mar 2026Atletico Torque – Club Nacional2–3
Aug 2025Club Nacional – Atletico Torque5–2
Jun 2025Atletico Torque – Club Nacional1–2
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Penarol35+2465
2Atletico Torque35+1863
3Deportivo Maldonado34+2262
4Club Nacional35+1161
5Racing Montevideo35+1460
6Liverpool Montevideo35+1659
7Wanderers35-251
8Albion FC34+346
9Juventud35-641
10Central Espanol35-1341
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Club Nacional 39%, the draw 24%, Atletico Torque 37%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.59 for Club Nacional, 1.55 for Atletico Torque), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club Nacional sit 4th on 61 points; Atletico Torque are 2nd on 63.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.