Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Sunday, 4 October 2026 · Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda
Club Atlético Güemes
0–1FULL TIME
Colegiales
21% Club
26% Draw
53% Colegiales
OUR PICK
Colegiales to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.55
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.68X3.9121.89
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.78
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.78
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.27
X2
79%
Club Atlético Güemes form
DLWLLH Temperley2–2
A Deportivo Maipu3–1
H Almagro2–1
A Patronato2–0
H Colegiales0–1
Colegiales form
DWDWWH Atletico DE Rafaela1–1
A Agropecuario0–3
H Tristan Suarez0–0
A Club Atlético Güemes0–1
H Chacarita Juniors2–1
Head to head
1
Club
0
Draw
3
Colegiales
Oct 2026Club Atlético Güemes – Colegiales0–1
May 2026Colegiales – Club Atlético Güemes4–1
Aug 2025Club Atlético Güemes – Colegiales1–0
Apr 2025Colegiales – Club Atlético Güemes1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes35+149
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model makes Colegiales clear favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.88 for Club Atlético Güemes, 1.55 for Colegiales), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.