Over 1.5 goals@1.11
Over 1.5
90%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio Banorte
Club America
1st · 29 pts2–2FULL TIME
Toluca
5th · 24 pts53% Club
20% Draw
27% Toluca
OUR PICK
Club America to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.88
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.63
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.88X5.0423.71
Goals 2.5Over1.33Under3.77
Both scoreGG1.38NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.33
Over 2.5
75%
Both teams to score@1.38
GG
73%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
Club AmericaToluca2.4Goals per game2.1
1.4Conceded per game1.4
1.93Points per game1.60
53%Win rate40%
15Goal difference10
8Form, last 5 (pts)4
Club America form
No recent matches.
Toluca form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Club
0
Draw
0
Toluca
These sides haven't met recently.
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Club America slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.88 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.9 goals in total (2.32 for Club America, 1.63 for Toluca), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club America sit 1st on 29 points; Toluca are 5th on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.