Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio Banorte
Club America
1st · 29 pts1–1FULL TIME
Monterrey
9th · 21 pts60% Club
18% Draw
22% Monterrey
OUR PICK
Club America to win
Model probability 60% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
2.59 – 1.56
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.68X5.4924.52
Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.37NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.37
GG
73%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
Club AmericaMonterrey2.4Goals per game1.9
1.4Conceded per game1.5
1.93Points per game1.50
53%Win rate43%
15Goal difference5
8Form, last 5 (pts)8
Club America form
DDLWWH Toluca2–2
H Club Tijuana1–1
H CF Pachuca1–2
A Atlas2–5
A Leon3–5
Monterrey form
DLWWDH Club Tijuana3–3
H Guadalajara Chivas0–1
A Puebla1–4
H CF Pachuca2–1
A Club America1–1
Head to head
2
Club
2
Draw
1
Monterrey
Oct 2026Club America – Monterrey1–1
Sept 2026Club America – Monterrey2–2
Feb 2026Club America – Monterrey1–0
Nov 2025Club America – Monterrey2–1
Nov 2025Monterrey – Club America2–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Club America clear favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (2.59 for Club America, 1.56 for Monterrey), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Club America sit 1st on 29 points; Monterrey are 9th on 21.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.