Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
UKRPremier League · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stadion Chornomorets
Chornomorets
9th · 9 pts0–0FULL TIME
Karpaty
5th · 19 pts17% Chornomorets
22% Draw
61% Karpaty
OUR PICK
Karpaty to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.83
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.96X4.4621.65
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.99
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.99
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.20
X2
83%
Season stats
ChornomoretsKarpaty0.8Goals per game2.0
1.2Conceded per game0.7
0.90Points per game1.73
20%Win rate45%
-4Goal difference14
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Chornomorets form
WDLLDA Veres Rivne1–3
H Karpaty0–0
A Zorya Luhansk2–1
H FC Kharkiv1–2
H Obolon'-Brovar1–1
Karpaty form
WWDDLH Kudrivka5–0
H Oleksandria2–1
A Chornomorets0–0
H Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2–2
A Dynamo Kyiv1–0
Head to head
1
Chornomorets
1
Draw
3
Karpaty
Oct 2026Chornomorets – Karpaty0–0
Mar 2025Karpaty – Chornomorets4–0
Sept 2024Chornomorets – Karpaty0–1
Aug 2024Karpaty – Chornomorets3–0
May 2019Chornomorets – Karpaty3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk11+1728
2Polessya10+1525
3Dynamo Kyiv10+722
4FC Kharkiv9+1121
5Karpaty11+1419
6Zorya Luhansk11018
7LNZ Cherkasy10+115
8Kolos Kovalivka9-111
9Chornomorets10-49
10Epitsentr Dunayivtsi11-59
Match preview
Our model makes Karpaty clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (0.84 for Chornomorets, 1.83 for Karpaty), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chornomorets sit 9th on 9 points; Karpaty are 5th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.