Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 5Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Estadio La Independencia
Chico
18th · 17 pts1–1FULL TIME
Junior
2nd · 35 pts20% Chico
23% Draw
58% Junior
OUR PICK
Junior to win
Model probability 58% · fair odds
1.73
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.85
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.08X4.4321.73
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.25
X2
80%
Season stats
ChicoJunior0.8Goals per game1.6
1.7Conceded per game1.3
0.89Points per game1.84
26%Win rate58%
-17Goal difference7
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Chico form
LDWLLA Deportivo Cali2–0
H Junior1–1
H Bucaramanga1–0
A Deportivo Pereira2–0
H Atletico Nacional1–4
Junior form
LDWDDA Llaneros3–2
A Chico1–1
H Águilas Doradas1–0
A Deportivo Cali0–0
H Deportivo Pereira1–1
Head to head
0
Chico
1
Draw
4
Junior
Oct 2026Chico – Junior1–1
Feb 2026Junior – Chico3–0
Aug 2025Junior – Chico2–0
Feb 2025Chico – Junior0–2
Jul 2024Junior – Chico2–1
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Junior clear favourites, giving them a 58% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.73 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.98 for Chico, 1.85 for Junior), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chico sit 18th on 17 points; Junior are 2nd on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.