COLPrimera A · Clausura - 14Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estadio La Independencia

Chico

18th · 17 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Cucuta

19th · 16 pts

40% Chico

25% Draw

35% Cucuta

OUR PICK

Chico to win

Model probability 40% · fair odds

2.52

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.37

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.52X3.9922.84

Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05

Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.29

Over 1.5

78%

Over/Under 2.5@1.85

Over 2.5

54%

Both teams to score@1.74

57%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

ChicoCucuta

0.8Goals per game1.2

1.7Conceded per game1.8

0.89Points per game0.84

26%Win rate16%

-17Goal difference-13

4Form, last 5 (pts)9

Chico form

LDWLL

A Deportivo Cali2–0

H Junior1–1

H Bucaramanga1–0

A Deportivo Pereira2–0

H Atletico Nacional1–4

Cucuta form

LLWWW

H Águilas Doradas0–2

A America de Cali3–1

H Atletico Nacional1–0

A Chico0–1

H Deportivo Pereira4–0

Head to head

Chico

Draw

Cucuta

Oct 2026Chico – Cucuta0–1

Mar 2026Cucuta – Chico1–0

Aug 2022Cucuta – Chico1–2

Sept 2020Chico – Cucuta0–2

Jul 2017Cucuta – Chico3–0

Primera A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Atletico Nacional19+2040

2Junior19+735

3Deportivo Pasto19+434

4America de Cali19+1033

5Once Caldas19+933

6Deportes Tolima19+1031

7Santa Fe19+729

8Internacional de Bogota19028

9Deportivo Cali19+427

10Millonarios19+826

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Chico 40%, the draw 25%, Cucuta 35%.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.47 for Chico, 1.37 for Cucuta), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Chico sit 18th on 17 points; Cucuta are 19th on 16.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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