Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
COLPrimera A · Clausura - 16Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio La Independencia
Chico
18th · 17 pts1–0FULL TIME
Bucaramanga
13th · 23 pts19% Chico
24% Draw
57% Bucaramanga
OUR PICK
Bucaramanga to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.68
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.37X4.1521.75
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.23
X2
81%
Season stats
ChicoBucaramanga0.8Goals per game1.4
1.7Conceded per game1.1
0.89Points per game1.21
26%Win rate26%
-17Goal difference6
4Form, last 5 (pts)5
Chico form
LDWLLA Deportivo Cali2–0
H Junior1–1
H Bucaramanga1–0
A Deportivo Pereira2–0
H Atletico Nacional1–4
Bucaramanga form
DWLLDH Atletico Nacional1–1
H Deportivo Pasto2–1
A Santa Fe2–1
A Chico1–0
H America de Cali1–1
Head to head
2
Chico
1
Draw
2
Bucaramanga
Oct 2026Chico – Bucaramanga1–0
Apr 2026Bucaramanga – Chico5–0
Jul 2025Bucaramanga – Chico1–1
Jun 2025Bucaramanga – Chico3–2
Jan 2025Chico – Bucaramanga1–0
Primera A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19+2040
2Junior19+735
3Deportivo Pasto19+434
4America de Cali19+1033
5Once Caldas19+933
6Deportes Tolima19+1031
7Santa Fe19+729
8Internacional de Bogota19028
9Deportivo Cali19+427
10Millonarios19+826
Match preview
Our model makes Bucaramanga clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.84 for Chico, 1.68 for Bucaramanga), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chico sit 18th on 17 points; Bucaramanga are 13th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.