Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Soldier Field
Chicago Fire
1–3FULL TIME
Philadelphia Union
50% Chicago
22% Draw
29% Philadelphia
OUR PICK
Chicago Fire to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.02
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.48
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.02X4.6023.48
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.50NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.50
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Chicago Fire form
WDWLLA Colorado Rapids2–4
H Orlando City SC2–2
A Atlanta United FC2–3
A New England Revolution1–0
H Philadelphia Union1–3
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
Head to head
1
Chicago
1
Draw
3
Philadelphia
Oct 2026Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union1–3
Mar 2026Philadelphia Union – Chicago Fire1–2
Nov 2025Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union0–3
Oct 2025Philadelphia Union – Chicago Fire2–2
Aug 2025Philadelphia Union – Chicago Fire4–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Chicago Fire slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.02 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.99 for Chicago Fire, 1.48 for Philadelphia Union), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.