Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 28Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Soldier Field
Chicago Fire
2–1FULL TIME
New York City FC
48% Chicago
24% Draw
28% New
OUR PICK
Chicago Fire to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.26
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.07X4.2223.56
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Chicago Fire form
WDWLLA Colorado Rapids2–4
H Orlando City SC2–2
A Atlanta United FC2–3
A New England Revolution1–0
H Philadelphia Union1–3
New York City FC form
DWDDLH CF Montreal1–1
H Atlanta United FC2–1
A Orlando City SC2–2
H Los Angeles FC1–1
A Inter Miami2–0
Head to head
1
Chicago
1
Draw
3
New
Oct 2026Chicago Fire – New York City FC2–1
Jul 2026New York City FC – Chicago Fire3–1
Sept 2025Chicago Fire – New York City FC1–3
May 2025New York City FC – Chicago Fire3–1
Aug 2024New York City FC – Chicago Fire2–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Chicago Fire slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.72 for Chicago Fire, 1.26 for New York City FC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.