Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · SMH Group Stadium
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts4–2FULL TIME
Tranmere
11th · 19 pts39% Chesterfield
26% Draw
35% Tranmere
OUR PICK
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.57X3.7822.88
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
ChesterfieldTranmere1.7Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game1.36
36%Win rate29%
3Goal difference2
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Tranmere form
WDWLDH Cheltenham3–1
A Crawley Town1–1
A Northampton0–1
H Barnet1–2
H Rochdale1–1
Head to head
2
Chesterfield
2
Draw
1
Tranmere
Oct 2026Chesterfield – Tranmere4–2
Apr 2026Chesterfield – Tranmere1–1
Oct 2025Tranmere – Chesterfield1–1
Apr 2025Tranmere – Chesterfield4–0
Dec 2024Chesterfield – Tranmere3–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Chesterfield 39%, the draw 26%, Tranmere 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.34 for Chesterfield, 1.25 for Tranmere), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chesterfield sit 10th on 19 points; Tranmere are 11th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.