Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
71%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · SMH Group Stadium
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts5–1FULL TIME
Crewe
4th · 22 pts36% Chesterfield
27% Draw
37% Crewe
OUR PICK
Crewe to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.69
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.80X3.6822.69
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.81
Both scoreGG1.99NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.99
GG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
ChesterfieldCrewe1.7Goals per game1.2
1.5Conceded per game1.2
1.36Points per game1.57
36%Win rate36%
3Goal difference0
5Form, last 5 (pts)7
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Crewe form
DLLWWH Barnet1–1
A Chesterfield5–1
A Exeter City2–0
H Rochdale3–2
A Swindon Town0–1
Head to head
2
Chesterfield
1
Draw
2
Crewe
Oct 2026Chesterfield – Crewe5–1
Apr 2026Chesterfield – Crewe2–0
Nov 2025Crewe – Chesterfield3–3
Sept 2025Crewe – Chesterfield7–1
Mar 2025Chesterfield – Crewe1–3
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Chesterfield 36%, the draw 27%, Crewe 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.22 for Chesterfield, 1.25 for Crewe), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chesterfield sit 10th on 19 points; Crewe are 4th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.