Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 12Tuesday, 20 October 2026 · SMH Group Stadium
Chesterfield
10th · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Colchester
23rd · 12 pts61% Chesterfield
21% Draw
18% Colchester
OUR PICK
Chesterfield to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.64
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.01
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X4.7725.51
Goals 2.5Over1.71Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
ChesterfieldColchester1.7Goals per game0.9
1.5Conceded per game1.5
1.36Points per game0.92
36%Win rate15%
3Goal difference-7
5Form, last 5 (pts)2
Chesterfield form
LWDLDA Newport County4–1
H Crewe5–1
H Colchester1–1
A Port Vale1–0
A Crawley Town2–2
Colchester form
LLDDLH Walsall1–3
A Northampton2–0
A Chesterfield1–1
H Exeter City0–0
A Newport County1–0
Head to head
1
Chesterfield
2
Draw
2
Colchester
Oct 2026Chesterfield – Colchester1–1
Mar 2026Chesterfield – Colchester3–0
Oct 2025Colchester – Chesterfield6–2
Mar 2025Colchester – Chesterfield1–0
Oct 2024Chesterfield – Colchester1–1
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Chesterfield clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (2.03 for Chesterfield, 1.01 for Colchester), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chesterfield sit 10th on 19 points; Colchester are 23rd on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.