BULFirst League · Matchday 12Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · Ticha Stadium

Cherno More Varna

9th · 12 pts

2–0FULL TIME

Septemvri Sofia

14th · 8 pts

46% Cherno

25% Draw

30% Septemvri

OUR PICK

Cherno More Varna to win

Model probability 46% · fair odds

2.19

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.24

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.19X4.0623.38

Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05

Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.29

Over 1.5

78%

Over/Under 2.5@1.85

Over 2.5

54%

Both teams to score@1.76

57%

Double chance@1.33

75%

Season stats

Cherno More VarnaSeptemvri Sofia

1.1Goals per game0.8

1.7Conceded per game1.9

0.92Points per game0.67

23%Win rate17%

-8Goal difference-13

8Form, last 5 (pts)0

Cherno More Varna form

WLWLL

H Septemvri Sofia2–0

H Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–1

A Marek0–3

H Levski Sofia0–2

A Ludogorets5–0

Septemvri Sofia form

LLLL

A Arda Kardzhali2–1

A Cherno More Varna2–0

A Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–1

H Dunav Ruse2–3

Head to head

Cherno

Draw

Septemvri

These sides haven't met recently.

First League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Levski Sofia12+2032

2CSKA Sofia13+2031

3Ludogorets12+1529

4CSKA 194813+1728

5Botev Plovdiv13+222

6Arda Kardzhali12-218

7Slavia Sofia13013

8Spartak Varna13-1113

9Cherno More Varna13-812

10Dunav Ruse13-711

Match preview

Our model makes Cherno More Varna slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.19 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.60 for Cherno More Varna, 1.24 for Septemvri Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Cherno More Varna sit 9th on 12 points; Septemvri Sofia are 14th on 8.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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