Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
77%
BULFirst League · Matchday 11Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Ticha
Cherno More Varna
13th · 9 pts0–2FULL TIME
Levski Sofia
1st · 32 pts11% Cherno
19% Draw
70% Levski
OUR PICK
Levski Sofia to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
0.71 – 2.12
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X218.89X5.3321.43
Goals 2.5Over1.86Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.13
X2
89%
Season stats
Cherno More VarnaLevski Sofia1.1Goals per game2.1
1.8Conceded per game0.4
0.75Points per game2.67
17%Win rate83%
-9Goal difference20
5Form, last 5 (pts)11
Cherno More Varna form
No recent matches.
Levski Sofia form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Cherno
0
Draw
0
Levski
These sides haven't met recently.
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Levski Sofia clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (0.71 for Cherno More Varna, 2.12 for Levski Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cherno More Varna sit 13th on 9 points; Levski Sofia are 1st on 32.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.