Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
75%
BULFirst League · Matchday 14Monday, 2 November 2026 · Ticha Stadium
Cherno More Varna
13th · 9 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Botev Vratsa
10th · 10 pts49% Cherno
25% Draw
26% Botev
OUR PICK
Cherno More Varna to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.05X3.9923.81
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.00
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@2.00
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Cherno More VarnaBotev Vratsa1.1Goals per game0.8
1.8Conceded per game1.8
0.75Points per game0.83
17%Win rate17%
-9Goal difference-11
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
Cherno More Varna form
WLWLLH Septemvri Sofia2–0
H Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–1
A Marek0–3
H Levski Sofia0–2
A Ludogorets5–0
Botev Vratsa form
DWLLLA Lokomotiv Sofia1–1
A Fratria1–2
A Botev Plovdiv2–0
H Spartak Varna0–1
A Slavia Sofia2–1
Head to head
2
Cherno
2
Draw
1
Botev
Jul 2026Botev Vratsa – Cherno More Varna1–1
Feb 2026Cherno More Varna – Botev Vratsa0–0
Aug 2025Botev Vratsa – Cherno More Varna1–0
Dec 2024Botev Vratsa – Cherno More Varna2–3
Aug 2024Cherno More Varna – Botev Vratsa2–1
First League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Levski Sofia12+2032
2CSKA Sofia13+2031
3Ludogorets12+1529
4CSKA 194813+1728
5Botev Plovdiv13+222
6Arda Kardzhali12-218
7Slavia Sofia13013
8Spartak Varna13-1113
9Dunav Ruse13-711
10Botev Vratsa12-1110
Match preview
Our model makes Cherno More Varna slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.58 for Cherno More Varna, 1.09 for Botev Vratsa), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cherno More Varna sit 13th on 9 points; Botev Vratsa are 10th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.