Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 13Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Whaddon Road
Cheltenham
5th · 21 pts1–0FULL TIME
Newport County
14th · 18 pts37% Cheltenham
22% Draw
40% Newport
OUR PICK
Newport County to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.47
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.77
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.69X4.4622.47
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.48NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.48
GG
68%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
CheltenhamNewport County1.6Goals per game1.4
1.8Conceded per game1.2
1.50Points per game1.29
43%Win rate29%
-2Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)8
Cheltenham form
LWWLDA Tranmere3–1
H Newport County1–0
H Fleetwood Town4–2
A Oldham4–1
H Tottenham Hotspur U212–2
Newport County form
WLDDWH Chesterfield4–1
A Cheltenham1–0
A Rotherham2–2
H York1–1
H Colchester1–0
Head to head
5
Cheltenham
0
Draw
0
Newport
Oct 2026Cheltenham – Newport County1–0
Apr 2026Cheltenham – Newport County1–0
Oct 2025Newport County – Cheltenham0–2
Feb 2025Newport County – Cheltenham0–3
Sept 2024Newport County – Cheltenham1–2
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Cheltenham 37%, the draw 22%, Newport County 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.47 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.69 for Cheltenham, 1.77 for Newport County), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Cheltenham sit 5th on 21 points; Newport County are 14th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.