Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
4th · 16 pts0–2FULL TIME
Tottenham
9th · 12 pts61% Chelsea
20% Draw
19% Tottenham
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Over 2.5
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.13
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.65X4.9625.25
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
ChelseaTottenham2.1Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.1
1.78Points per game1.33
56%Win rate33%
4Goal difference0
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Chelsea form
WDLWWH Manchester United2–0
A Liverpool1–1
H Tottenham0–2
A Everton0–2
H Bournemouth5–1
Tottenham form
WWWDLH Crystal Palace2–0
A Chelsea0–2
H Coventry3–1
A Manchester United1–1
H Aston Villa2–3
Head to head
3
Chelsea
0
Draw
2
Tottenham
Oct 2026Chelsea – Tottenham0–2
Aug 2026Chelsea – Tottenham1–2
May 2026Chelsea – Tottenham2–1
Nov 2025Tottenham – Chelsea0–1
Apr 2025Chelsea – Tottenham1–0
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Everton9013
8Bournemouth9+112
9Tottenham9012
10Aston Villa9-312
Match preview
Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.16 for Chelsea, 1.13 for Tottenham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chelsea sit 4th on 16 points; Tottenham are 9th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.