Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 9Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
4th · 16 pts2–0FULL TIME
Manchester United
17th · 7 pts64% Chelsea
18% Draw
18% Manchester
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Chelsea to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.22
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X5.4525.63
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.22
1X
82%
Season stats
ChelseaManchester United2.1Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.7
1.78Points per game0.78
56%Win rate11%
4Goal difference-5
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Chelsea form
No recent matches.
Manchester United form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Chelsea
0
Draw
0
Manchester
These sides haven't met recently.
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Manchester City9+1021
2Arsenal8+821
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool8+315
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.43 for Chelsea, 1.22 for Manchester United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chelsea sit 4th on 16 points; Manchester United are 17th on 7.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.