ENGPremier League · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stamford Bridge

Chelsea

4th · 16 pts

5–1FULL TIME

Bournemouth

7th · 12 pts

35% Chelsea

24% Draw

41% Bournemouth

OUR PICK

Bournemouth to win

Model probability 41% · fair odds

2.43

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.63

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.85X4.2222.43

Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36

Both scoreGG1.61NG2.48

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.22

Over 1.5

82%

Over/Under 2.5@1.66

Over 2.5

60%

Both teams to score@1.61

62%

Double chance@1.31

76%

Season stats

ChelseaBournemouth

2.1Goals per game1.6

1.7Conceded per game1.4

1.78Points per game1.33

56%Win rate33%

4Goal difference1

9Form, last 5 (pts)9

Chelsea form

WDLWW

H Manchester United2–0

A Liverpool1–1

H Tottenham0–2

A Everton0–2

H Bournemouth5–1

Bournemouth form

WWWWW

H Leeds2–0

H Aston Villa3–0

A Manchester United0–3

H AC Milan3–0

H Sunderland2–0

Head to head

Chelsea

Draw

Bournemouth

Oct 2026Chelsea – Bournemouth5–1

Dec 2025Chelsea – Bournemouth2–2

Dec 2025Bournemouth – Chelsea0–0

Jan 2025Chelsea – Bournemouth2–2

Sept 2024Bournemouth – Chelsea0–1

Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Arsenal9+924

2Manchester City9+1021

3Brighton9+1719

4Chelsea9+416

5Liverpool9+215

6Brentford9+714

7Bournemouth9+112

8Tottenham9012

9Aston Villa9-312

10Hull City9+111

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Chelsea 35%, the draw 24%, Bournemouth 41%.

Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.49 for Chelsea, 1.63 for Bournemouth), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Chelsea sit 4th on 16 points; Bournemouth are 7th on 12.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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