Over 1.5 goals@1.43
Over 1.5
70%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 8Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Chaves
Chaves
15th · 8 pts2–1FULL TIME
Vizela
8th · 14 pts22% Chaves
26% Draw
52% Vizela
OUR PICK
Vizela to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.54
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.54X3.8921.91
Goals 2.5Over2.14Under1.79
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.87
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Under 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.87
NG
53%
Double chance@1.28
X2
78%
Season stats
ChavesVizela1.0Goals per game1.1
2.0Conceded per game1.0
0.89Points per game1.56
22%Win rate44%
-9Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Chaves form
LWWDLA Benfica B3–1
H Vizela2–1
H Os Marialvas2–1
A Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
A Farense4–0
Vizela form
WLLLWH Academica2–1
A Chaves2–1
A Atlético CP1–0
H Sporting CP B0–2
A Bombarralense0–1
Head to head
2
Chaves
0
Draw
3
Vizela
Oct 2026Chaves – Vizela2–1
Jul 2026Vizela – Chaves1–0
Feb 2026Vizela – Chaves3–2
Oct 2025Chaves – Vizela1–0
Apr 2025Chaves – Vizela1–2
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Vizela slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (0.90 for Chaves, 1.54 for Vizela), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chaves sit 15th on 8 points; Vizela are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.