Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Municipal de Chaves
Chaves
15th · 8 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Penafiel
2nd · 19 pts14% Chaves
18% Draw
69% Penafiel
OUR PICK
Penafiel to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
0.97 – 2.38
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X217.28X5.6421.46
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.16
X2
86%
Season stats
ChavesPenafiel1.0Goals per game2.1
2.0Conceded per game0.9
0.89Points per game2.11
22%Win rate67%
-9Goal difference11
7Form, last 5 (pts)12
Chaves form
LWWDLA Benfica B3–1
H Vizela2–1
H Os Marialvas2–1
A Lusitânia Lourosa1–1
A Farense4–0
Penafiel form
WWLLDH Feirense1–0
A Farense1–4
H Leça0–1
H AVS1–2
H Deportivo La Coruna2–2
Head to head
2
Chaves
1
Draw
2
Penafiel
Feb 2026Chaves – Penafiel0–1
Aug 2025Penafiel – Chaves0–2
May 2025Penafiel – Chaves0–0
Jan 2025Chaves – Penafiel0–1
Jul 2023Penafiel – Chaves1–2
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Penafiel9+1119
3Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
4Benfica B9+517
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes Penafiel clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (0.97 for Chaves, 2.38 for Penafiel), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Chaves sit 15th on 8 points; Penafiel are 2nd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.